Cougars set to pounce on Beavers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/25/2007 - Pullman, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington State has cracked the Top-25, and the 20th-ranked Cougars will play host to the Oregon State Beavers this evening in a Pac-10 tilt.

Oregon State is 0-5 against ranked teams this season, and the squad is just 9-11 overall. On Saturday, the Beavers fell to 1-6 against Pac-10 opponents with a 67-56 loss to Stanford, and while they are now 6-9 at home, they actually own a better record on the road (3-2).

Washington State recently won its first game as a ranked team since 1980, and the club is currently a surprising 16-3 overall, including 5-2 against Pac-10 foes. The Cougars have won five of their last six games, including a 75-47 romp over Washington on Saturday that enabled them to improve to 9-0 at home.

Oregon State owns a 161-111 advantage in the all-time series with Washington State, and the Beavers won both meetings last season.

Marcel Jones has started all 20 games for Oregon State this season and is netting a team-high 16.9 ppg to go along with 6.1 rpg. The only other double-digit scorer in the lineup is Sasa Cuic, as he is posting 13.3 ppg. The Beavers are only generating 66.1 ppg on 42.7 percent shooting from the floor, and they are allowing 68.1 ppg to opponents. In the loss to Stanford on Saturday, Jones scored 20 points to go along with eight rebounds and seven steals. Unfortunately, he got little help from a rather weak supporting cast, and the Beavers shot just 37.7 percent from the field while also suffering a 16-5 disadvantage in points from the foul line. Cuic missed the game because of a bruised left elbow, but he may be able to get back to action tonight.

Derrick Low is the leading scorer for Washington State, as he is scoring 14.6 ppg on 41 percent accuracy from behind the arc. Like Oregon State, the Cougars only have two double-digit scorers on the roster, as Kyle Weaver adds 11.3 ppg to the lineup. WSU is not an explosive offensive team by any means, but the fact that the club has been able to limit opponents to 58.1 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting from the field explains the tremendous success achieved thus far. The Cougars dominated Washington at both ends of the floor on Saturday, as they shot 53.6 percent from the field while limiting the Huskies to 28.3 percent efficiency. Low nailed 5-of-7 three-pointers and finished with 20 points to lead the way in the win, and Weaver hit 7-of-8 shots from the field en route to 17 points.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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